In review

  • Zhao, Yi; Guan, Kaiyu; Shukla, S, Chen, Min, Davis, Steven: Changes in cropping patterns during the 2012-2015 Californian mega drought: a case study of Kern County, Environmental Research Letters.
  • Pomposi, C., Funk, C., Shukla, S., Harrison, L., and T. Magadzire, Distinguishing Southern Africa precipitation response by strength of El Niño events and implications for decision-making. Environmental Research Letters.
  • Chris Funk, Laura Harrison, S. Shukla,Catherine Pomposi, Gideon Galu, Diriba Korecha, Gregory Husak, Tamuka Magadzire, Frank Davenport, Chris Hillbruner, Gary Eilerts, Benjamin Zaitchik and James Verdin: Examining the role of unusually warm Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures in recent African droughts: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.

Published/Accepted

2017

  • Shukla, S., Daniel McEvoy, Mike Hobbins, Greg Husak, Justin Huntington, Chris Funk, Denis Macharia and James Verdin: Examining the value of global seasonal reference evapotranspiration forecasts to support FEWS NET’s food insecurity outlooks, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (In press).
  • Davenport F, K. Grace, C. Funk, S. Shukla, 2017: Child health outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: A comparison of changes in climate and socio-economic factors, Global Environmental Change, Volume 46, September 2017, Pages 72-87, ISSN 0959-3780, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.009 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016302667)
  • Chris Funk, Frank Davenport, Laura Harrison, Tamuka Magadzire, Gideon Galu, Guleid A. Artan, S. Shukla, Diriba Korecha, Matayo Indeje, Catherine Pomposi, Denis Macharia and Gregory Husak: Anthropogenic warming of sea surface temperatures contributes to droughts and food insecurity in Southern Africa and East Africa: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective) (Accepted)
  • Amy McNally, Kristi Arsenault, Sujay Kumar, S. Shukla, Pete Peterson, Shugong Wang, Chris Funk, Christa D. Peters-Lidard & James P. Verdin: A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications. Scientific Data 4, Article number: 170012, doi:10.1038/sdata.2017.12
  • A Hoell, AE Gaughan, S Shukla, T Magadzire: The Hydrologic Effects of Synchronous El Niño Southern Oscillation and Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole Events over Southern Africa. Journal of Hydrometeorology. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0294.1

2016

  • Chris Funk, Laura Harrison, S. Shukla, Andrew Hoell, Diriba Korecha, Tamuka Magadzire, Gregory Husak, and Gideon Galu: Assessing the Contributions of Local and East Pacific Warming to the 2015 droughts in Ethiopia and Southern Africa. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Vol. 97, No. 12. S75-S80. BAMS-D-16-0167.1​
  • Shukla, S., J. Roberts, A. Hoell, C. C. Funk, F. Robertson and B. Kirtman: Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa. Climate Dynamics. 1-17. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3296-z
  • McNally, A., S. Shukla, K. Arsenault, S. Wang, C. Peters-Lidard, and J. P Verdin: Evaluating ESA CCI soil moisture in East Africa. 48, 96–109, International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. doi:10.1016/j.jag.2016.01.001.
  • S. Madadgar, A. AghaKouchak, S. Shukla, A. W. Wood, L. Cheng, S. Sorooshian, K. Hsu, M. Svoboda: A Hybrid Statistical Dynamical Drought Prediction Framework: Application to the Southwestern United States. Water Resources Research. 52, 5095–5110, doi:10.1002/2015WR018547
  • Hoell A., C. Funk and S. Shukla: Recent and possible future variations in the North American Monsoon. The Monsoons and Climate Change, Springer Climate. 149-162.
  • Funk, C, A. Hoell, G. Husak, S. Shukla and J. Michelson: The East African monsoon system: seasonal climatologies and recent variations. The Monsoons and Climate Change, Springer Climate. 163-185.

2015

  • Shukla, S., A. Steinemann, S.F. Iacobellis and D.R. Cayan: Annual Drought in California: Association with Monthly Precipitation and Climate Phases. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 54, 2273–2281. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0167.1
  • Shukla, S.**, M. Safeeq, A. AghaKouchak, K. Guan, and C. Funk, 2015: Temperature Impacts on the Water Year 2014 Drought in California. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, doi: 10.1002/2015GL063666.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063666/abstract  (** Ranked in the top 5% of all articles scored by Almetric http://wiley.altmetric.com/details/3983651)
  • C. Funk, P. Peterson, M. Landsfeld, D. Pedreros, J. Verdin, S. Shukla, G. Husak and L. Harrison:A new environmental record for monitoring hydrologic extremes. Nat. Sci. Data. 2, 150066. doi:10.1038/sdata.2015.66. http://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201566
  • Hoell, A., S. Shukla, M. Barlow, F. Cannon, C. Kelley and C. Funk 2015: The Forcing of Monthly Precipitation Variability over Southwest Asia During the Boreal Cold Season. J. Clim. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00757.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00757.1
  • Safeeq, M., S. Shukla, I. Arismendi, G. Grant, S. Lewis, and A. Nolin: Influence of winter season climate variability winter season climate variability on snow precipitation ratio in the Western U.S. Intl. J. Clim. doi:10.1002/joc.4545 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4545/full
  • Grace, K., F. Davenport, H. Hanson, C. Funk, and S. Shukla: Examining the Relationship between Temperature, Rainfall and Low Birth Weight in sub-Saharan Africa. Glob. Env. Change. 25 (125-137), doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.010. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378015300066
  • Funk, C., S. Shukla, A. Hoell and B. Livneh: Assessing the contributions of East African and west Pacific warming to the 2014 boreal spring East African drought. Bull. Am. Met. Soc. (Climate Attribution issue)  https://www2.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/toc/16-assessing-the-contributions-of-east-african-and-west-pacific-warming-to-the-2014-boreal-spring-east-african-drought/

2014

  • Shukla, S., C. Funk and A. Hoell, 2014: Using constructed analogs to improve the skill of National Multi-Model Ensemble March–April–May precipitation forecasts in equatorial East Africa. Env. Res. Letters, 9, 094009 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/9/094009.
  • Shukla, S., McNally, A., Husak, G., and Funk, C. 2014: A seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for food-insecure regions of East Africa, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3907-3921, doi:10.5194/hess-18-3907-2014.
  • Funk, C., Hoell, A., Shukla, S., Bladé, I., Liebmann, B., Roberts, J. B., Robertson, F. R., and Husak, G. 2014: Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4965-4978, doi:10.5194/hess-18-4965-2014, 2014.
  • Nijssen, B., S. Shukla, C. Lin, H. Gao, T. Zhou, J. Sheffield, E. F. Wood, D. P. Lettenmaier, 2014: A prototype Global Drought Information System based on multiple land surface models, J. Hydrometeorol. doi: doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-090.1.

2013

  • Funk, C., Husak, G., Michaelsen, J., Shukla, S., Hoell, A., Lyon, B., Hoerling, M. P., Liebmann, B., Zhang, T., Verdin, J., Galu, G., Eilerts, G., and Rowland, J.: Attribution of 2012 and 2003-12 rainfall deficits in eastern Kenya and southern Somalia, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,95, S45–S48, 2013.
  • Shukla, S., and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2013: Multi-RCM ensemble downscaling of NCEP CFS winter season forecasts: Implications for seasonal hydrologic forecast skill, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118,10,770–10,790, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50628. 
  • Shukla, S., Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Lettenmaier, D. P., 2013: On the sources of global land surface hydrologic predictability, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2781-2796, doi:10.5194/hess-17-2781-2013. 

2012

  • Mo, K. C., S. Shukla, D. P. Lettenmaier, and L.-C. Chen. 2012. Do climate forecast system (CFSv2) forecasts improve seasonal soil moisture prediction?, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2012GL053598. 
  • Shukla, S., N. Voisin, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2012:Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill,Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2825-2838, doi:10.5194/hess-16-2825-2012. 
  • Mo, K. C., L. Chen, S. Shukla, T. Bohn, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2012: Uncertainties in North American Land Data Assimilation Systems over the Contiguous United States, J. Hydrometeor., 13(3), doi:10.1175/JHM-D-11-0132.1.

2011

  • Shukla, S., and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2011. Seasonal hydrologic prediction in the United States: understanding the role of initial hydrologic conditions and seasonal climate forecast skill. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 15, 3529-3538, doi:10.5194/hess-15-3529-2011.
  • Shukla, S., A. C. Steinemann, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2011. Drought monitoring for Washington state: Indicators and Applications. J. Hydrometeor. 12: 66–83, 10.1175/2010JHM1307.1. 
  • Muñoz Arriola, F., S. Rabadán, J. Humberto, M. Rocchiccioli, Heléne, S. Shukla, G. D. Reyes, A. L. Sánchez, and René. 2011. Surface hydrology in Grijalva river basin: Calibration of the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Aqua-LAC. 3(1): 68 - 80. 

2009

  • Munoz-Arriola, F., S. Shukla, T. Bohn, C. Zhu, B. Livneh, D.P. Lettenmaier, R. Lobato-Sanchez and A. WagnerGomez. 2009: Forecasting Surface Hydrology in North America, Border Climate Summary, July 13th: 1-5. 
  • Mishra, V., K. Cherkauer, and S. Shukla. 2009. Assessment of drought due to historic climate variability and projected future climate change in the Midwestern United States. J. Hydrometeor. 11: 46-68, 10.1175/2009JHM1156.1. 

2008

  • Shukla, S. and A.W. Wood. 2008. Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought. Geophys. Res. Letters. 35: L02405, doi:10.1029/2007GL032487.