In review

  • Davenport, F., L. Harrison, S. Shukla, G. Husak, C. Funk, and A. Mcnally: What is the Best Earth Observation Product for Predicting Regional Grain Yields in Food Insecure Countries? Environmental Research Letters.​​

Published/Accepted

2019

  • Davenport, F., Laura Harrison, Shukla, S., Greg Husak, Chris Funk and Amy McNally: Using out-of-sample yield forecast experiments to evaluate which earth observation products best indicate end of season Maize yields. Environ. Res. Lett. 14 124095. doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5ccd
  • Blum Annalise G., Zaitchik Ben, Alexander Sarah, Wu Shu, Zhang Ying, Shukla S., Alemneh Temesgen, Block Paul: A Grand Prediction: Communicating and Evaluating 2018 Summertime Upper Blue Nile Rainfall and Streamflow Forecasts in Preparation for Ethiopia's New Dam, Frontiers in Water, 1 , 2019. https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/frwa.2019.00003, DOI=10.3389/frwa.2019.00003, 2624-9375.
  • McNally A, Kristine Verdin, Laura Harrison, Augusto Getirana, Jossy Jacob, S. Shukla, Kristi Arsenault, Christa Peters-Lidard and James P. Verdin: Acute Water-Scarcity Monitoring for Africa. Water 2019, 11(10), 1968; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11101968, https://www.mdpi.com/538844
  • Funk C., P. Peterson, S. Peterson, S. Shukla, F. Davenport, J. Michaelsen, K.R. Knapp, M. Landsfeld, G. Husak, L. Harrison, J. Rowland, M. Budde, A. Meiburg, T. Dinku, D. Pedreros, and N. Mata, 2019: A High-Resolution 1983–2016 Tmax Climate Data Record Based on Infrared Temperatures and Stations by the Climate Hazard Center. J. Climate, 32, 5639–5658, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0698.1 
  • Harrison, L., C. Funk; A. McNally, S. Shukla, G. Husak, 2019: Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Linkages with Tanzania’s Multi-season Drying Trends. International Journal of Climatology.​ 39(6), 3057-3075, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6003
  • Funk, C., S. Shukla, W.M. Thiaw, J. Rowland, A. Hoell, A. McNally, G. Husak, N. Novella, M. Budde, C. Peters-Lidard, A. Adoum, G. Galu, D. Korecha, T. Magadzire, M. Rodriguez, M. Robjhon, E. Bekele, K. Arsenault, P. Peterson, L. Harrison, S. Fuhrman, F. Davenport, M. Landsfeld, D. Pedreros, J.P. Jacob, C. Reynolds, I. Becker-Reshef, and J. Verdin, 2019: Recognizing the Famine Early Warning Systems Network: Over 30 Years of Drought Early Warning Science Advances and Partnerships Promoting Global Food Security. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 100, 1011–1027, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0233.1 

2018

  • Pomposi, C., Funk, C., Shukla, S., Harrison, L., and T. Magadzire, 2018: Distinguishing Southern Africa precipitation response by strength of El Niño events and implications for decision-making. Environmental Research Letters. 2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 074015 (http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacc4c/meta​)
  • Funk, C., F. Davenport, L. Harrison, T. Magadzire, G. Galu, G. A Artan, S. Shukla, D. Korecha, M. Indeje, C. Pomposi, Denis Macharia, G. Husak, F. D. Nsadisa, 2018: Anthropogenic Enhancement of Moderate-to-Strong El Niño Events Likely Contributed to Drought and Poor Harvests in Southern Africa During 2016. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 99 (1) S91-S96. (https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0112.1)
  • Chris Funk, Laura Harrison, S. Shukla, Catherine Pomposi, Gideon Galu, Diriba Korecha, Gregory Husak, Tamuka Magadzire, Frank Davenport, Chris Hillbruner, Gary Eilerts, Benjamin Zaitchik and James Verdin, 2018: Examining the role of unusually warm Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures in recent African droughts: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3266 (https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.3266)

2017

  • Shukla, S., D. McEvoy, M. Hobbins, G. Husak, J. Huntington, C. Funk, D. Macharia, and J. Verdin, 2017: Examining the Value of Global Seasonal Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasts to Support FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Outlooks. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 56, 2941–2949, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0104.1 .
  • Davenport F, K. Grace, C. Funk, S. Shukla, 2017: Child health outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: A comparison of changes in climate and socio-economic factors, Global Environmental Change, Volume 46, September 2017, Pages 72-87, ISSN 0959-3780, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.009 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016302667)
  • Chris Funk, Frank Davenport, Laura Harrison, Tamuka Magadzire, Gideon Galu, Guleid A. Artan, S. Shukla, Diriba Korecha, Matayo Indeje, Catherine Pomposi, Denis Macharia and Gregory Husak: Anthropogenic warming of sea surface temperatures contributes to droughts and food insecurity in Southern Africa and East Africa: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective) (Accepted)
  • Amy McNally, Kristi Arsenault, Sujay Kumar, S. Shukla, Pete Peterson, Shugong Wang, Chris Funk, Christa D. Peters-Lidard & James P. Verdin: A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications. Scientific Data 4, Article number: 170012, doi:10.1038/sdata.2017.12
  • A Hoell, AE Gaughan, S Shukla, T Magadzire: The Hydrologic Effects of Synchronous El Niño Southern Oscillation and Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole Events over Southern Africa. Journal of Hydrometeorology. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0294.1

2016

  • Chris Funk, Laura Harrison, S. Shukla, Andrew Hoell, Diriba Korecha, Tamuka Magadzire, Gregory Husak, and Gideon Galu: Assessing the Contributions of Local and East Pacific Warming to the 2015 droughts in Ethiopia and Southern Africa. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Vol. 97, No. 12. S75-S80. BAMS-D-16-0167.1​
  • Shukla, S., J. Roberts, A. Hoell, C. C. Funk, F. Robertson and B. Kirtman: Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa. Climate Dynamics. 1-17. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3296-z
  • McNally, A., S. Shukla, K. Arsenault, S. Wang, C. Peters-Lidard, and J. P Verdin: Evaluating ESA CCI soil moisture in East Africa. 48, 96–109, International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. doi:10.1016/j.jag.2016.01.001.
  • S. Madadgar, A. AghaKouchak, S. Shukla, A. W. Wood, L. Cheng, S. Sorooshian, K. Hsu, M. Svoboda: A Hybrid Statistical Dynamical Drought Prediction Framework: Application to the Southwestern United States. Water Resources Research. 52, 5095–5110, doi:10.1002/2015WR018547
  • Hoell A., C. Funk and S. Shukla: Recent and possible future variations in the North American Monsoon. The Monsoons and Climate Change, Springer Climate. 149-162.
  • Funk, C, A. Hoell, G. Husak, S. Shukla and J. Michelson: The East African monsoon system: seasonal climatologies and recent variations. The Monsoons and Climate Change, Springer Climate. 163-185.

2015

  • Shukla, S., A. Steinemann, S.F. Iacobellis and D.R. Cayan: Annual Drought in California: Association with Monthly Precipitation and Climate Phases. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 54, 2273–2281. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0167.1
  • Shukla, S.**, M. Safeeq, A. AghaKouchak, K. Guan, and C. Funk, 2015: Temperature Impacts on the Water Year 2014 Drought in California. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, doi: 10.1002/2015GL063666.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063666/abstract  (** Ranked in the top 5% of all articles scored by Almetric http://wiley.altmetric.com/details/3983651)
  • C. Funk, P. Peterson, M. Landsfeld, D. Pedreros, J. Verdin, S. Shukla, G. Husak and L. Harrison:A new environmental record for monitoring hydrologic extremes. Nat. Sci. Data. 2, 150066. doi:10.1038/sdata.2015.66. http://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201566
  • Hoell, A., S. Shukla, M. Barlow, F. Cannon, C. Kelley and C. Funk 2015: The Forcing of Monthly Precipitation Variability over Southwest Asia During the Boreal Cold Season. J. Clim. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00757.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00757.1
  • Safeeq, M., S. Shukla, I. Arismendi, G. Grant, S. Lewis, and A. Nolin: Influence of winter season climate variability winter season climate variability on snow precipitation ratio in the Western U.S. Intl. J. Clim. doi:10.1002/joc.4545 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4545/full
  • Grace, K., F. Davenport, H. Hanson, C. Funk, and S. Shukla: Examining the Relationship between Temperature, Rainfall and Low Birth Weight in sub-Saharan Africa. Glob. Env. Change. 25 (125-137), doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.010. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378015300066
  • Funk, C., S. Shukla, A. Hoell and B. Livneh: Assessing the contributions of East African and west Pacific warming to the 2014 boreal spring East African drought. Bull. Am. Met. Soc. (Climate Attribution issue)  https://www2.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/toc/16-assessing-the-contributions-of-east-african-and-west-pacific-warming-to-the-2014-boreal-spring-east-african-drought/

2014

  • Shukla, S., C. Funk and A. Hoell, 2014: Using constructed analogs to improve the skill of National Multi-Model Ensemble March–April–May precipitation forecasts in equatorial East Africa. Env. Res. Letters, 9, 094009 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/9/094009.
  • Shukla, S., McNally, A., Husak, G., and Funk, C. 2014: A seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for food-insecure regions of East Africa, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3907-3921, doi:10.5194/hess-18-3907-2014.
  • Funk, C., Hoell, A., Shukla, S., Bladé, I., Liebmann, B., Roberts, J. B., Robertson, F. R., and Husak, G. 2014: Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4965-4978, doi:10.5194/hess-18-4965-2014, 2014.
  • Nijssen, B., S. Shukla, C. Lin, H. Gao, T. Zhou, J. Sheffield, E. F. Wood, D. P. Lettenmaier, 2014: A prototype Global Drought Information System based on multiple land surface models, J. Hydrometeorol. doi: doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-090.1.

2013

  • Funk, C., Husak, G., Michaelsen, J., Shukla, S., Hoell, A., Lyon, B., Hoerling, M. P., Liebmann, B., Zhang, T., Verdin, J., Galu, G., Eilerts, G., and Rowland, J.: Attribution of 2012 and 2003-12 rainfall deficits in eastern Kenya and southern Somalia, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,95, S45–S48, 2013.
  • Shukla, S., and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2013: Multi-RCM ensemble downscaling of NCEP CFS winter season forecasts: Implications for seasonal hydrologic forecast skill, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118,10,770–10,790, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50628. 
  • Shukla, S., Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Lettenmaier, D. P., 2013: On the sources of global land surface hydrologic predictability, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2781-2796, doi:10.5194/hess-17-2781-2013. 

2012

  • Mo, K. C., S. Shukla, D. P. Lettenmaier, and L.-C. Chen. 2012. Do climate forecast system (CFSv2) forecasts improve seasonal soil moisture prediction?, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2012GL053598. 
  • Shukla, S., N. Voisin, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2012:Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill,Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2825-2838, doi:10.5194/hess-16-2825-2012. 
  • Mo, K. C., L. Chen, S. Shukla, T. Bohn, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2012: Uncertainties in North American Land Data Assimilation Systems over the Contiguous United States, J. Hydrometeor., 13(3), doi:10.1175/JHM-D-11-0132.1.

2011

  • Shukla, S., and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2011. Seasonal hydrologic prediction in the United States: understanding the role of initial hydrologic conditions and seasonal climate forecast skill. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 15, 3529-3538, doi:10.5194/hess-15-3529-2011.
  • Shukla, S., A. C. Steinemann, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2011. Drought monitoring for Washington state: Indicators and Applications. J. Hydrometeor. 12: 66–83, 10.1175/2010JHM1307.1. 
  • Muñoz Arriola, F., S. Rabadán, J. Humberto, M. Rocchiccioli, Heléne, S. Shukla, G. D. Reyes, A. L. Sánchez, and René. 2011. Surface hydrology in Grijalva river basin: Calibration of the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Aqua-LAC. 3(1): 68 - 80. 

2009

  • Munoz-Arriola, F., S. Shukla, T. Bohn, C. Zhu, B. Livneh, D.P. Lettenmaier, R. Lobato-Sanchez and A. WagnerGomez. 2009: Forecasting Surface Hydrology in North America, Border Climate Summary, July 13th: 1-5. 
  • Mishra, V., K. Cherkauer, and S. Shukla. 2009. Assessment of drought due to historic climate variability and projected future climate change in the Midwestern United States. J. Hydrometeor. 11: 46-68, 10.1175/2009JHM1156.1. 

2008

  • Shukla, S. and A.W. Wood. 2008. Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought. Geophys. Res. Letters. 35: L02405, doi:10.1029/2007GL032487.